Unintended Consequences of Trump's Trade Wars
Unintended Consequences of Trump’s Trade Wars
Junious Ricardo Stanton
President Trump’s
ongoing trade wars are resulting in numerous unintended consequences such as
other nation’s leaders being both leery and weary of Trump’s policies and aggressively
scrambling to circumvent his tariffs against China, the EU and other nations.
As I
mentioned in a previous commentary, China,
Mexico, India and places like Viet Nam are not “stealing American
jobs” as Trump disingenuously claims. Investors, venture capitalists,
corporations and multi-national businesses seeking cheaper labor, access to
cheaper raw materials, lower taxes, less government regulation and cheaper
operating costs have shipped capital and jobs overseas to increase their bottom
line.
Trump
plays on the ignorance of his voting base and Americans in general to demonize
foreign leaders because the US
has massive trade imbalances with their countries. But when you look past
Trump’s jingoist rhetoric, you discover the trade imbalances are due to Western
globalization (neocolonialism) which was pushed by the US ruling class,
backed by American politicians at the expense of American workers!
Trump’s response has been to threaten,
demonize and impose tariffs which so far are not having the desired results of
bringing China to the negotiating table and caving in to Trump’s demands or
boosting US trade around the world. Trump’s tariffs against China and China’s tit for tat responses are
negatively impacting the bottom line of US farmers, businesses and investors
and will hurt US consumers. The raising costs of the trade wars and concurrent inflation
will severely impact US consumers because it is the consumers who pay the added
costs of the duties and tariffs not the exporting nation!
To
avoid the added expense of Trump’s tariffs some US companies placed large orders
prior to Trump’s Tariffs going into effect. Some US
businesses are rerouting their Chinese made products through Viet Nam and changing the labels to avoid paying
the tariffs while others are increasing their investments in Viet Nam and setting up their
manufacturing plants and factories there.
Viet Nam is experiencing an economic boom in part due to the US - China trade war. “Vietnam is flying high these days
on nearly all metrics. Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow 7%,
foreign direct investment (FDI) is fast rising and a newly signed free trade
agreement with Europe promises new privileged access to rich export markets.
The only fly in the anointment comes from across the ocean in
Washington,
the capital of its former battlefield adversary where the unpredictable
US
President Donald Trump is waging trade wars on various fronts.
Vietnam has so far been a big winner of the Sino-US trade war.
That’s been seen in booming Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows from China, both from foreign and Chinese companies
relocating their production facilities to Vietnam
to avoid US tariffs, and subsequent rising exports to the US. Vietnam has so far been a big
winner of the Sino-US trade war. That’s been seen in booming FDI inflows from China, both from foreign and Chinese companies
relocating their production facilities to Vietnam
to avoid US tariffs, and subsequent rising exports to the US. ” No
Stopping Viet Nam’s Trade War Juggernaut- Peter Janssen
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/07/article/no-stopping-vietnams-trade-war-juggernaut/
Viet Nam offers cheaper labor, cheaper even than
China.
“Vietnam has a large, fairly well-educated work force who earn factory wages
that are one third of China’s, half of Thailand’s and less than Indonesia’s or
the Philippines.” Ibid
Viet
Nam is making deals with Europe and its’ Asian neighbors
and interestingly enough now Viet Nam
has a growing trade surplus against the US. “The country has gone from
being the 12th largest source of US imports in 2018 to ranking 8th at the end
of May this year, with the US importing $25.8 billion worth of Vietnamese goods
and only sending $4.2 billion of exports to Vietnam in return. That’s made
Vietnam 5th worldwide in terms of trade surpluses with the US, trailing only
China, Mexico, Japan and Germany, according to US Census Bureau figures.” Ibid
Currency
manipulation is another one of Trump’s disingenuous charges what is the Federal
Reserve Bank’s Qualitative Easing and Qualitative Tightening but inflationary
and deflationary monetary policy? Keep an eye on this situation because it
could mean another nation Trump will antagonize and alienate with his misguided
tariffs and trade policies.
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Trump's Tariffs In An Era of Economic Decline
Trump's Tariffs In An Era of
Economic Decline
Junious Ricardo
Stanton
“A tariff is a tax on imports, often
known as a duty or a trade barrier. The purpose of a tariff is to protect
domestic production and jobs, though economists say other domestic sectors and customers
ultimately pay for tariffs.” What Is A Tariff, Who Pays and What Is the Purpose of A Tariff? Jed
Graham https://www.investors.com/news/economy/what-is-a-tariff/
Donald Trump campaigned on the slogan “Make America Great
Again” and promised as the world’s greatest dealmaker, he would renegotiate existing
trade agreements, do away with NAFTA and get better deals with trading partners
like China
and the European Union. Some people liked Trump’s feel good message and fell
for his okey-doke not realizing Trump has not telling the whole truth even
though his America First message sounded good.
Once he was elected Trump embarked on his plan to Make
America Great Again by threatening, lambasting and denigrating other countries’
leaders and his predecessor’s policies, deals and agreements. But most people forget
the policies of Bu$h, Clinton,
Bu$h and Obama were a direct response to the ruling elites’ agenda of
globalization.
America went from an industrial economy to a service economy
because Wall Street decided to make that change and fatten their profits using
cheap overseas labor. The truth is, China
did not steal American jobs. CEO’s, financiers and politicians conspired to
reinvest their money, to build factories, plants and call centers in places
like India, Mexico, China, Malaysia and Viet Nam rather than pay American
workers decent wages and provide benefits that would boost their standard of
living and the American economy.
Businessman
and former US
presidential candidate Ross Perot recently made transition. When he ran as an
independent candidate for president in 1992 he warned the American people about
the devastating impact the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the
General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) which was replaced by the World
Trade Organization in 1995 would have on the US economy. The corporate media downplayed
Perot’s insight and the duopoly political parties pushed the global agenda of
their corporate patrons.
Trump ran on restoring American economic
viability and stature; but his policies belie his grasp of macroeconomic
principles. Trump chose to pick fights with US trading partners, Mexico, Canada,
the EU and China.
He has threatened or imposed tariffs on steel, aluminum and other products from
these countries. His negotiations with China
are currently at a standstill and the deal he negotiated with Mexico and Canada (USMCA) to
replace NAFTA is not that radical. The US
can sell more milk to Canada
and the percentage of cars manufactured in North America (US, Mexico and Canada) has increased and workers
making those cars must make an average of $16 an hour and the USMCA discourages
currency devaluation but that’s it.
The reality is globalization has gutted US
factories and industries and tariffs are not a short term solution because
there is no US
industry to protect. There has been no massive repatriation of investment back
to the US
like Trump promised. His tariffs and trade wars will further shrink US
capabilities because the reinvestment and capitalization Trump promised is not
happening on a large enough scale. Don’t confuse deregulation or inflated stock
market prices with domestic economic stability; there are too many other
factors at play such as overseas cheap labor, investment, the status of the US
dollar, US interest rates, resources,
raw materials, international politics and relationships.
To make
matters worse debt burdened US consumers are the ones who will pay the costs of
Trump’s tariffs not the exporting nations! These rising consumer costs plus worker’s
decades’ long stagnant wages are putting a hurting on Joe and Jane Sixpack.
To
add insult to injury, Trump’s trade war with China has cost US farmers billions
in losses. Trump’s tariffs have not produced the desired results and his ever
escalating sanctions on more and more countries are making it difficult for
other nations to view the US
as anything but an arrogant schoolyard punk. As America’s
strongest rivals like China stand
up to the US, it will become
more evident the US
is a paper tiger.
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A Novel Approach To Resolving America's Bullying Crisis
A Novel Approach to
Addressing America’s Bullying Crisis
Junious
Ricardo Stanton
I recently
attended my wife’s maternal family reunion in Patterson Louisiana. This was our first time attending
so we met a lot of her relatives she did not know. She met one cousin two years
ago through Ancestry.com and they
maintained regular communications.
When her cousin, who is a lay
genealogist, told her about their family’s history of biennial reunions we made
plans to attend the 2019 reunion. My wife recruited her siblings, her
nieces and great nieces and nephews to attend. Twenty three of her family
members traveled from New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Georgia
to Patterson Louisiana
to the 2019 Elmore Family Kin and Friends Reunion. We had a great time.
The reunion planners provided
opportunities for family members to promote their businesses, avocations,
hobbies and interests. My wife created and brought a photographic display of
her maternal relatives which included her parents, her maternal uncle, his wife
and her siblings. Even though she saw people that looked like her and her
immediate family, these relatives did not know her mother and uncle because her
mother and uncle left Louisiana and resettled
in Illinois and Pennsylvania respectively in the late 1940’s.
While their roots were in Louisiana
most of the people her mother and uncle knew, who knew them, made transition
years ago.
One of her cousins Sandra Johnson
Morrison had a display and promotional materials about her program for bullying
prevention, intervention and postvention called R.E.H.A.B. Bullying Buddy System. Her program stands for Recognize,
Expose, Handle, Alert and Believe in rehabilitation. She felt it was her
responsibility to raise awareness and address bullying because she and her
brother were bullied as youngsters when the Patterson Louisiana schools were
integrated. She developed the concept when she discovered her grandson was
being bullied at the middle school so she went to the school to bring the
situation to the attention of the teacher and principal.
“The young man that bullied my
grandson was bullied and his parents put him in a Tae Kwon Do class. My
grandson was his friend and he started practicing and picking on my grandson. It (the bullying) affected him
emotionally, physically and psychologically. It affected him in school because
he was bullied in the classroom, on the playground and we found out the
teachers knew he was being bullied and they didn’t do anything to prevent it.”
shared Mrs. Morrison. That’s when she found out about the code of silence
and threats of violence and retaliation, the “snitches get stitches” mentality.
It was placed on her heart to do
something about it. “You can’t let kids keep getting away with bullying other
children. There have to be consequences. We’re not trying to single out a child
and say that child is bad, we’re trying to find out why that child needs to
bully someone, and why a child feels the need to allow someone to bully them,
what’s really going on?”
When you factor in cyber-bullying
which is a rising phenomenon in this country, bullying is reaching crisis
levels. As Mrs. Morrison envisions it, her program must include active family,
church and community engagement and intervention. She wants people to know that
it is important to break the silence, that both the abuser and the victim need
rehabilitation and support. “The goal is to set up an elite leadership
organization, to make a safe haven for the children, to get counselors to come
in and counsel the kids like mentors and rehab bullies so that child knows they
are doing wrong so they can correct their behavior. We want to focus on their
potential and help them develop their God given talents, gifts and skills.”
Mrs. Morrison is adamant the abusers must be
identified, monitored and made to face the consequences of their actions in a
way that encourages the child to reorient their negative behavior and re-channel
their energies into positive values and activities. She feels the target of the
abuse needs support and reaffirmation also because they suffer emotionally and
psychologically as well as physically.
“If you find out your child is
being bullied, do something immediately, handle that situation immediately, bring
it to the attention of the school or take them out of that school. Bullying is
cruel and it is ugly, too many children are killing themselves because of
bullying.”, emphasized Mrs. Morrison.
Studies show that bullying has long
term affects for the abuser, the target and society as a whole. Mrs. Morrison
has created a program that addresses bullying. She believes if her program is
implemented, it could go a long way in reducing bullying and at least
discourage the code of silence and retaliation when one speaks out. For more
information about the R.E.H.A.B. Bullying “Buddy System” contact Sandra Johnson
Morrison at (985) 498-9661.
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